Product Prognostications

The Consumer Electronic Association's (CEA) Gary Shapiro is known for maintaining an ever-optimistic stance on the progress of home entertainment, and a recent keynote at the Semiconductor Market Outlook Conference earlier this month provided an opportunity for him to reveal his top predictions for the future.

In his opening remarks, Shapiro noted that the consumer electronics industry is merely at "the end of the beginning of the digital revolution." He went on to state that the future of the consumer electronics industry looks strong, with total consumer electronics sales from manufacturers to dealers forecast to top $100 billion in 2003, "marking a solid $4 billion increase over projected 2002 sales—and 2002 sales are on track to rise 3% over 2001."

Shapiro feels that we are only at the beginning of what electronics can and will do to change our lives. In the shift to digital electronics, we are now "toddlers." With this in mind, he offered predictions about the future of consumer electronics.

First, Shapiro predicted, sensing devices will become an integral part of consumer electronics. He said a shift to smaller, better technologies that sense changes in sound, light, smell, the environment, and the weather will become more plentiful and will be incorporated into future products.

"Wireless will rule" stood as Shapiro's next prediction. "Wireless will grow as more people rely on it for many uses beyond voice transmission. The CEA is particularly excited about the possibilities stemming from the potential uses of unlicensed spectrum. We are urging the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to allocate more unlicensed spectrum for consumer electronics and broadband wireless technologies."

Building upon his prediction for wireless, Shapiro also proclaimed that in the future, connectivity will be king. "All products will have a degree of connectivity with each other, many through the Web." Shapiro, in a prediction sure to rankle privacy advocates, added, "And with our new focus on homeland security, expect new products to convey information for national security purposes."

Rounding out his predictions, Shapiro proclaimed that broadband is inevitable. "We must and we will become linked with broadband. Every generation has had a new pipeline into the home. Looking ahead, the pipeline will be invisible as wireless services and devices offer consumers new options and new freedoms."

X