Discs or Downloads?

Will the future of audio distribution be dominated by discs or downloads? Will we always have both?

Everywhere I go, I now ask this question. I'm often reminded by audiophiles that humans are hunter/collectors and we like to hoard piles of stuff. It's better if we can see and fondle this stuff. Therefore, there will always be discs, or some physical audio object, around to buy and store, they say.

When talking to music fans with hard drives crammed full of tunes, however, I find they often exhibit all of the hunter/collector tendencies, but emphasize that they can do it without all of the stuff. They exalt in the ability to be more efficient as hunters/collectors, quickly acquiring (through legal or other means) and moving thousands of tunes around without the piles of plastic.

So then I wonder.

Of course, there's also the quality issue. The record labels would clearly like to keep selling discs, and could trump present-day downloads with higher-resolution audio and assorted extras. This makes audiophiles happy and is seen as a primary force behind the DualDisc, with the music industry still fighting the download urge by cramming more bits onto a physical object that can't be easily downloaded.

But market forces are funny things, and sometimes an enabling technology is all it takes to shift a population from one platform to another. While the DualDisc is an enabling technology attempting to keep plastic recordings and disc players attractive, broadband (along with hard discs, iTunes, and iPods) is working hard to turn disc collectors into download junkies.

Last year represented a major turning point in broadband usage worldwide.

According to recent data released by market analysts Ipsos-Insight, the number of online consumers around the world that accessed the Internet via a broadband connection grew by an astounding 24% in 2004. The researchers conducted interviews in 12 global markets and conclude that as a result of this accelerated broadband adoption, less than a third of Internet users world-wide now rely on narrowband dial-up as their primary access point.

According to Ipsos-Insight, 2004 also marked the year when the US became a predominantly broadband country, with close to six out of ten users accessing the Internet through some type of high-speed connection. The highest broadband adoption rates last year, however, were seen in France, urban Brazil, and the UK, which jumped by 59%, 50%, and 45% respectively. While dial-up access continues to be the prevalent access point in these economies, the researchers describe the broadband growth in these countries as particularly strong.

Currently, the researchers say, countries can still be divided into two camps: those relying heavily on dial-up access vs those who rely mainly on broadband. Dial-up regions include the urban markets of Russia, India, Mexico, Brazil, France, and the UK. "For these markets, dial-up will likely move toward fixed-line high-speed options such as DSL or ISDN."

In North America and urban Russia, on the other hand, Ipsos-Insight finds that cable is the predominant high-speed connection. "Notably, the majority of the households in urban markets of China and India have cable television access—the highest, in fact, relative to the measured markets—97% and 96% respectively. Due to their sheer population sizes and wide cable access, they present enormous opportunity for future cable-broadband Internet connectivity."

The research indicates that among broadband users, fixed-line currently owns 67% of connected households, cable owns 28%, and optical fiber owns 5%. While fixed-line and cable companies continue to race for market share, the researchers point out that wireless Internet is a formidable new contender, with 11% of users having accessed the Internet through some wireless connection in 2004. Ipsos-Insight reports, "The advantages of recent wireless technologies that enable broadband Internet access, such as Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, and 3G, are well positioned to propel growth in both developed and lesser-developed environments."

So the question for music fans will increasingly be: If you can eventually either download or purchase a disc of equivalent quality, which would you choose?

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