gkc
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No Top in Sight
JSBach
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Oy veigh! You people are slow. I got my holding in March 1990 at $397.00 or thereabouts.
Tried to tell anyone who'd listen but most didn't. One of my relatives even informed me I was obsessed with gold because I was an Ayn Rand groupie. My accountant bought in a month after I did and still has his holding. Find myself wondering though what's about to happen to the cost of gold jewellery? I guess platinum is about to become fashionable for the ladies.
Oh,and having worked for a few years on the Melbourne Stock Exchange let me tell you that the most dangerous presumption you can have about any share, commodity, bond etc is ' No top in sight'.

JIMV
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I fear gold because I fear the government will scam the issue if they ever feel they need to. By scam the issue, I mean they will do the same thing they did in the 1930's, they will abolish the private ownership of gold and will reimburse folk not the actual bullion value but instead will compensate the face value of the coins. Silver might be a better investment, far easier to convert to goods.

JSBach
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I fear gold because I fear the government will scam the issue if they ever feel they need to. By scam the issue, I mean they will do the same thing they did in the 1930's, they will abolish the private ownership of gold and will reimburse folk not the actual bullion value but instead will compensate the face value of the coins. Silver might be a better investment, far easier to convert to goods.


Well then, if you don't trust Washington buy shares in an Australian gold mining company.

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Quote:

Quote:
I fear gold because I fear the government will scam the issue if they ever feel they need to. By scam the issue, I mean they will do the same thing they did in the 1930's, they will abolish the private ownership of gold and will reimburse folk not the actual bullion value but instead will compensate the face value of the coins. Silver might be a better investment, far easier to convert to goods.


Well then, if you don't trust Washington buy shares in an Australian gold mining company.

Buying gold shares is not the same as buying gold...

JSBach
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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
I fear gold because I fear the government will scam the issue if they ever feel they need to. By scam the issue, I mean they will do the same thing they did in the 1930's, they will abolish the private ownership of gold and will reimburse folk not the actual bullion value but instead will compensate the face value of the coins. Silver might be a better investment, far easier to convert to goods.


Well then, if you don't trust Washington buy shares in an Australian gold mining company.

Buying gold shares is not the same as buying gold...


Really ! I'm amazed. None the less I stick with my advice.

Buddha
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Given the mention of 1990...

The Dow has risen from 3,000 to 14,000, now to 11,000 since 1990. About 3.5 fold.

Property values...

Purchased a house in 1993 at price X, current value, even after the crash is 3.5X.

Gold, up about the same.

No matter which genius guided you, you are up about the same.

Spare me the gold rush.

If you bought gold in 1979 at over 800 bucks an ounce - you are a fucking idiot; up only 1.5X in the last 30 years, dipshits.

When shoe shine guys are telling you to invest in something....time to get out of that market.

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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
I fear gold because I fear the government will scam the issue if they ever feel they need to. By scam the issue, I mean they will do the same thing they did in the 1930's, they will abolish the private ownership of gold and will reimburse folk not the actual bullion value but instead will compensate the face value of the coins. Silver might be a better investment, far easier to convert to goods.


Well then, if you don't trust Washington buy shares in an Australian gold mining company.

Buying gold shares is not the same as buying gold...


Really ! I'm amazed. None the less I stick with my advice.

I view gold stocks like I view the idea of a survivalist retreat in the boonies...for both to have any value in a disaster, one has to get to it...Paper Gold in Australia is of little value when the larder in Peoria is empty. The retreat in the boonies is worthless when one is out of gas in the traffic gridlock 10 miles out of your town 100 miles from the retreat (which another refugee has already discovered and moved into).

If you want gold, buy gold and keep it close.

Buddha
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So, was there some sort of survivalist convention where you established gold's acceptability as currency in the coming post-apocalyptic world?

I'd think shell casings, bags of gunpowder, Spam, water bottles with clean water, etc. would have more intrinsic value than gold.

Why not rubies, or diamonds? They will never be "stolen" by the government.

Iridium or other industraally crucial metals, too.

"Gold" as the final common denominator seems to fit survivalist BS better than it would suit reality.

Hell, live ammo should really be your gold standard. Oh! And those long handled Bic lighters and vitamins, too!

Maybe I'll stock up on antibiotics for the coming barter culture.

Lamont Sanford
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I'd think shell casings, bags of gunpowder, Spam, water bottles with clean water, etc. would have more intrinsic value than gold.

Right on! And don't forget to get your weapons for NATO ammunition. No more of those damn .45 and 7mm bullshit. It won't do any good as well as gold.

JSBach
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If you want gold, buy gold and keep it close.

Sold all mine at $1233 Aus and put the proceeds into rural property at the far end of the earth.
As to all this apocalyptic speculation, if the human race continues down it's present path nowhere on the planet will be safe. We deserve our own extinction and no amount of spam, ammunition and all that other stuff will save you.

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Quote:

Quote:
If you want gold, buy gold and keep it close.

Sold all mine at $1233 Aus and put the proceeds into rural property at the far end of the earth.
As to all this apocalyptic speculation, if the human race continues down it's present path nowhere on the planet will be safe. We deserve our own extinction and no amount of spam, ammunition and all that other stuff will save you.


What?, spam won't save ya ... and all this time ...

gkc
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Dissily, you bought too soon. I began buying silver in 1993, when you had all Summer to buy 3.50 to 3.60. I started on gold in 1999, at 275, and added down to 255. Brown's sale of the British reserves, when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, at 275 (plus or minus) was an obvious fundamental buy signal -- the markets always wait for the last puke.

I duly noted all of this, on this site, on past posts.

Ayn Rand has nothing to do with it. 6,000 years of recorded history is more relevant.

Gold jewelry is for pimps and whores (nothing against THEM, but the glow is the show, and that's ALL it is for that crowd...).

You trade the miners. After all, paper does still buy things. There are no absolutes, regarding this particular context.

I don't think you read my post. But, I am glad you felt the need to respond with your own take.

Good luck.

gkc
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JIMV, the "government" can "scam the issue" only if they have gold that has not been leased to the bullion banks. The good Dr. Paul has pressed for an audit of United States (putative) gold holdings. So far, his requests have been ignored or rebuffed, on the grounds (snicker) that it would be too expensive (snort) to conduct such an audit (outright guffaw).

The US Treasury carries its gold reserves on the books at a value of $42 per ounce. The US Treasury balance sheet is woefully short of future commitments. We don't have to go on a gold standard to create 10+ trillion out of thin air. Can you do basic arithmetic?

The US government has run short of "scam" options. That is why gold is high and going higher (on its normal zigzag path, business as usual...).

You should not buy gold or the miners to survive in some post-apocalyptic fantasy land. You should consider it as a vehicle for generating returns over time. Bet on the same old, same old. Business as usual. Negative yields on Treasury instruments, with Fed funds holding steady at zero, and a Fed desperate for at least a LITTLE inflation.

Good luck, and happy tunes.

gkc
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Buddha, the "shoe shine boys" are telling you to get your shoes shined. Period. The TV ad factory is equally weighted -- for every "buy gold now," there is a "Cash 4 gold," and send us your jewelry.

Why does it always have to be all or nothing? There is no apocalypse. What did I write to even suggest such a thing? Gold is in a decade-long uptrend. It has been trading seasonally, each year, making higher highs and higher lows. Whether you bought real estate or unreal estate is irrelevant, in the present now. Gold is simply a currency play, in the current environment, because it has no counterparty risk, and because world monetary authorities are fearful enough of deflation to keep real interest rates negative

If you bought gold at 800 in 1980, you are probably too old to remember. But if you bought gold at 800 in 1980 and KEPT BUYING IT, you are fartin' in silk.

Fact. The gold bull began in 1999, when Brown puked out the last major Central Bank knout. Since then, such sales have been token and weak. Until last year, when Central Banks began to return to the net BUY side. Guess what they know that we don't.

There are no conspiracies and there is no apocalypse. And the shoe shine boys will remain desperate for tips, as always. There is simply unending debt, and no way to pay it off. There is simply the fact that Keynesian Economics assumes that we are all relativists when it comes to a monetary basis. But, it turns out that big money doesn't like this "relativist" notion. And that is what is showing up as record open interest in each liquid contract month (currently, that would be December) at the Comex, where ALL big money transactions eventually get settled.

If you think you got scammed, then sell your 2 ounces. For $300 more per coin than you paid. Which works out to about a 30% gain, or 15% per annum. In an environment where Treasury instruments yield 1% over the same period.

I am sorry I brought it all up. Now, piss off and let me continue to make money without your bullshit. When it's too high, I'll short it. Will YOU? I have seen this movie before. Have YOU? Repeat. Sell your lousy 2 ounces and buy a new phono pickup with the profits. I doubt that you will be unhappy.

Meanwhile, there is no top IN SIGHT. When there IS a top in sight, I will sell it.

Why am I surprised that nobody knows how to read any more?

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Nothing like seeing a bunch of grown men covet, horde and obsess over worldly things. Humanity at its finest!

I'd say a good half of my uber rich friends are overly concerned about money because they have small wangs.

gkc
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Or, Lamont, if you still have the cliche two nickels to rub together, you can sell gold short, quite easily. Just buy shares of DZZ, a double inverse ETF, that closed Friday at 8.93. As I said, it is an INVERSE vehicle -- it will go up as gold goes down. At double the pace.

Go for it. Friday's close was at an all-time low, which figures, because gold now sits at an all-time high. If this is, indeed, the top in gold, you can make a fortune by selling short, and DZZ is your baby.

C'mon, honey. Put your money where your finger is. Let us know your entry. If this is a scam, here's your chance to expose it and make some serious gelt in the process.

You too, Buddha. If this is all bullshit, then sell it short. If irridium, molybdenum, and cobalt are better monetary bases than gold, then gold is over-hyped and ought to be sold short.

Of course, the better play is to sell a few contracts short on the Comex,for maximum bang for the buck, but it would cost you considerably more to ante into this game than it would to buy a few thousand shares of DZZ.

Again, let me know your entry price, and good luck.

Seriously. As you all well know, there is a lot of bullshit flying around here, and very little action. Okay. Here is your chance to back up the bullshit with some skin in the game. If gold is too high, then SHORT it. It's as easy as buying it. And, after all, you WILL be backing your convictions, right??

gkc
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I am sure you have done an empirical study by hand-measuring said wangs. Please don't tell us how much you enjoyed it.

JSBach
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Meanwhile, there is no top IN SIGHT. When there IS a top in sight, I will sell it.
Why am I surprised that nobody knows how to read any more?


Well having seen way too many people imagine they could infallibly detect when 'the top was in sight' and loose a fortune I'm not surprised you imagine you're being misread.
On the other hand you could make a fortune by publishing your infallible 'in sight' methodology in book form or set yourself up as a financial adviser to very rich risk takers.

Buddha
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Dow is up 68% since March of 09.

Bottom of the local real estate market seems to have hit Chico, CA. Time to buy....I predict a 15% bounce in the next 18 months. (Local only. Not predicting other places. Plus, we get a mortgage deduction and a place to live. So, that's where we are headed for the end of 2010.)

Remember the book "Dow 36,000?"

It's all gambling, Clifton. That's all I was saying. People who buy gold as "the hedge of the apocalypse" are dolts. In ten years, they will be sitting on gold they paid 1,300 bucks an ounce for when it's worth 500.

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I am sure you have done an empirical study by hand-measuring said wangs. Please don't tell us how much you enjoyed it.

depends on how drunk I was and whether or not money was involved.

Buddha
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Quote:
I am sure you have done an empirical study by hand-measuring said wangs. Please don't tell us how much you enjoyed it.

depends on how drunk I was and whether or not money was involved.

When I saw that it was Clifton who started the thread, I automatically assumed "no top in sight" meant he was posting from the strip club.

Monty
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The difference between Clifton's predictions and most everyone else's opinions on the topic is that Clifton has been right...for several years now. The key to making predictions is to never give a price and a date...even you will be right...someday...if you leave out the timing aspect.

Clifton looks at things as they are and are likely to head based on macro data. It's then that he asks himself what is likely to benefit or be harmed. Smoe of you guys look at the end result you wish to predict and then try to justify that outcome.

You wish to contradict Clifton's prediction and so you start from that position and work your way backwards. Or, more likely, you simply predict the opposite and leave out a time frame. In any event, it makes you look petulant and unserious.

Buddha
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The difference between Clifton's predictions and most everyone else's opinions on the topic is that Clifton has been right...for several years now. The key to making predictions is to never give a price and a date...even you will be right...someday...if you leave out the timing aspect.

Clifton looks at things as they are and are likely to head based on macro data. It's then that he asks himself what is likely to benefit or be harmed. Smoe of you guys look at the end result you wish to predict and then try to justify that outcome.

You wish to contradict Clifton's prediction and so you start from that position and work your way backwards. Or, more likely, you simply predict the opposite and leave out a time frame. In any event, it makes you look petulant and unserious.

Monty, I took Clifton's advice and bought some gold.

I was pointing out to Ms. Mordentroge that over the past 20 years, it matters not - whether one chose gold, stocks, or real estate....the return was about the same.

I don't believe special congratulations are in order when no matter what the avenue of investment, the return was about the same.

"In any event, it makes you look petulant and unserious."

Yes, the "no top in sight strip club Joke" was a bit unserious, and I offer an apology to you with all the sincerity your unbrage merits!

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Quote:

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I am sure you have done an empirical study by hand-measuring said wangs. Please don't tell us how much you enjoyed it.

depends on how drunk I was and whether or not money was involved.

When I saw that it was Clifton who started the thread, I automatically assumed "no top in sight" meant he was posting from the strip club.

I'm just relieved. I thought the thread was "No Pot In Sight."

gkc
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Dissily, you sold too soon. I know. It's tough out there. But you were guessing, and you guessed wrong. Guessing will get you nowhere, in these markets.

Good luck.

gkc
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Thanks, Monty. Yes, I am a professional, but only in the sense that I live or die with my own market forecasts. I do not have a web site. I do not pimp for links.

I post my thoughts on gold here only because one or two (forgive the hyperbole) readers might listen.

I work very hard for my gruel. I spend two hours a day parsing these markets. I try to filter out the noise and get to the grits.

Usually, I am successful. I always get the general shape of the thing right, but never exactly. For the last 30 years that has been good enough.

Buddha, you have forecasted $500 gold. You pulled the number out of your ass. Now, give us the basis for that forecast. You wouldn't know a MACD (google it) from a Macheath, and now you are a master forecaster.

Good fucking luck.

Daily RSI's are flashing "overbought" for December gold (GCZ10). Yet, weekly and monthly RSI's are "business as usual." Gold is in a bull market. Such divergences are the norm.

The two most undervalued stocks out there are Goldcorp (GG, NYSE) and Yamana (AUY, NYSE). For every $10,000 you have, of liquid, "investable" (I hate that word, since "investing" is like "marriage," LONG gone...consider it a bad metonym -- thanks to our elected fools we are ALL speculators, like it or not, even if you park cash in your mattress ) capital you have, you should buy 200 shares of AUY at less than $12 (today's close was $11.75). That's $2,300-$2400. You should also buy 100 shares of GG at less than $46 (today's close was $45.24). That's another $4600, which means you are in about 2/3 of your speculative capital. For GG, there is a tick gap down to $44. It may fill, after you buy at the higher price. Do not panic. Add whatever your stomach can take. There are no gaps below today's close for AUY. My targets for AUY and GG, by December 31st, are $15 and $50, respectively.

This will not make you rich, nor will it bankrupt you. But it will beat hell out of half a percent (the current yield for 2-year Treasury Notes).

Buddha, stop dabbling in areas you do not understand. I am a 30-year trading veteran. I do NOT pull numbers out of my ass, for the sake of rhetorical flourishes. You have NO idea what went on in January of 1980, since you were little more than a puking baby. I was there. I learned from it. This is how I make my living.

Buddha, if you think $500 gold is in the offing, then you should short the fuck out of it. You could make a fortune. Of course, if you are wrong...

Good luck, and happy tunes to all. Thanks again, Monty, for taking me with at least 2 grains of salt.

Buddha
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Good grief, Clifton.

I pointed out that whatever genius invested at the same time Ms. Mordentroge had the brilliant idea to buy gold, she neither outperformed real estate nor the Dow.

Throwing a dart is the same.

If you say you remember it 'cause you were a gold soldier all along, then you can Google your own damn memory or look at the numbers I posted....none of which were "pulled out of my ass."

Hell, even in the last two years, gold has only managed to roughly parallel the Dow.

Example:

March 2009 -

Gold = 922.00 per ounce.

Dow = 7608

Today -

Gold = 1379

Dow = 11,096

Gold is up 49%

Dow is up 46%

Great, you are competitive with a Dow index fund and could have used those hours spent on gold looking up something more lucrative.

_____

How many times have you heard "no top in sight" and it's been true?

Fuck, here's a tip:

Apple! No top in sight!

In March 2009 I was a fucking genius and bought Apple at 88 'cause I liked my iPhone.

Now it's at 300!

I'm up 240 fucking percent!

Gold can suck my ass, it's Apple that has no top in sight!

My Apple stock has kicked gold's ass.

Let's check Cisco (I bought it in 1990 because they were doing stuff that made our lab computers hook together across the UC system) - it's up more than 200 times what I paid for it.

Gold can't even begin to compare.

Gold is nice and all, but it isn't the "no top in sight" thing you make it out to be.

That's my point.

If you need your ass licked, go to that other "no top in sight" place I mentioned.

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How many times have you heard "no top in sight" and it's been true? Fuck, here's a tip: Apple! No top in sight!

But is Mr Jobs was immortal.?

Quote:
In March 2009 I was a fucking genius and bought Apple at 88 'cause I liked my iPhone. Now it's at 300! I'm up 240 fucking percent!

Bought mine in December 1996 when Apple bought into NeXT, Inc & because I fell in love with my first iMac. Still a bargain for sure. Still holding them but I've started selling all my share holdings. At my age watching the market ceases to be relaxing entertainment. Just want to lie back and enjoy my ill gotten capitalist gains. Now here's a tip from little me. Don't buy into Microsoft.

gkc
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Bullshit, Buddha. You are slinging a hindsight narrative. My buys are on record. Yours are fiction. In hindsight.

A random poll of 10 million "investors" would reveal that they all bought AAPL and GOOG at IPO prices. They didn't, and you didn't either. You are full of shit. Post your plays real time. Repeat. You are full of shit and you are constructing a narrative in hindsight. After all, 10 million liars can't be wrong, eh?

Next time you feel like a genius, post your trades as you make them..

That is what I am doing.

Concerning Apple and Cisco, when are you going to sell?

Repeat. If you believe your own bullshit, you should sell gold short. Be sure to tell us when and at what price, the day you execute the trades. Then you will be believable.

Your selective memory probably feeds your current delusions. Fine. I understand that. I have encountered hindsight geniuses throughout my entire life.

What NOW, genius? What are you buying and selling NOW?

You are an absolute idiot if you don't short gold now. Otherwise, you are a mere run-of-the-mill blowhard, constructing fictions out of your selective memory.

Make the call now. As opposed to making UP the call 20+ years in hindsight.

Buy the "DOW" (do you even KNOW how to do that?). Now. Do tell us your fill. Then, a couple years down the road, we'll be able to evaluate THAT call for what it is/was.

My calls are on record, real time. Yours are fictional, in hindsight. Sell gold in REAL time, and give us your mark in REAL time. I am out on a limb, and you are not.

This is such bullshit. And I am outta here.

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Quote:

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I'm just relieved. I thought the thread was "No Pot In Sight."

lol! thats makes two of us.

Mark

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Dissily, you sold too soon. I know. It's tough out there. But you were guessing, and you guessed wrong. Guessing will get you nowhere, in these markets.

People dispose of shares for many different reasons. It's not always due to imagining the top of the market has been reached. Some of us, especially those like myself who've actually worked on the exchange floor and are now old & almost ready to drop off the perch, eventually find keeping track of a portfolio nerve wracking and no longer the least entertaining. I'm happy I made a fat profit and fewer losses but even happier that very soon I wont need to read the bloody finance pages, annual reports, mineral assays etc ad nauseam. As to guessing, believe me, even those who can interpret charts, read between the lines in annual reports, follow the currency market 26/7 etc can get caught with their pants down.
For instance, in the late 70's I held a large block of United Petroleum Reserves. Arriving early to work one morning at the brokers I found the senior partner drunk as a skunk on his own in the board room. So drunk in fact he confessed that a mineral assay of nickel reserves they'd published was fraudulently over estimated by a criminal amount. I put a sell order on first thing that morning and lost nothing. The senior partner later on that night committed suicide. UPR shares plunged to 1/4 of a cent and everyone holding them lost big time. The company was liquidated, the directors prosecuted. There's a lesson in there somewhere.

Buddha
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Well, if aren't really "out of here..."


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Bullshit, Buddha. You are slinging a hindsight narrative. My buys are on record. Yours are fiction. In hindsight.

Cliffy, good for you. However, all reported success is in hindsight; is it not, mister English teacher?

Stock tip number one: I buy stock in companies whose products I like.

Hence, I still have Apple; and Cisco went bye-bye when their market share dipped below 25%. (Go Google the date, if you can find that sort of thing, amigo.)

My brother-in-law is an investment adviser and he had us short oil a couple years ago, so don't mock a well placed short.


Quote:

What NOW, genius? What are you buying and selling NOW?

Buying a house in Chico. Closing Nov. 15. Then, the spare change will be going into expanding it and making it how we want the details to be.

My "buy" will be on the record, as are yours, and you are welcome to come eat our food and drink our wine at any time.

(Now, if I had invested more in Romanee Conti and Lafite, I'd be "peeing in silk! During the great Romanee Conti crash of the mid-90's, I bought "some" bottles and they have also outperformed gold.)

In the last two years, first growth Bordeaux has also crushed gold:

Return on investment of first growth Bordeaux.

Wow, how did I pull that out of my ass? You are welcome to come over and verify and then deplete my assets.

So, my '86 Mouton has outperformed gold, as well.

More buys?

Research luxury goods that the new "upper class" in China will want. You can even buy a First Growth Bordeaux Index!

Until October 30th, pumpkins.

Not selling much of anything right now.

My worst "buys?"

Hi Fi gear!

I bought Apogee....gone.

PS Audio....gone. Now, back, but gone as my gear needed parts.

Audio Alchemy....gone.

Soundline....gone.

Superphon....gone.

If you want to keep an audio company alive, pay me not to buy any of its product!

mark evans
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If you want to keep an audio company alive, pay me not to buy any of its product!

Please buy Bose products

JSBach
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Quote:

(Now, if I had invested more in Romanee Conti and Lafite, I'd be "peeing in silk! During the great Romanee Conti crash of the mid-90's, I bought "some" bottles and they have also outperformed gold.) In the last two years, first growth Bordeaux has also crushed gold:


Buy only what you like yourself? NAH! In 1971 I bought three cases of Penfolds Grange on the advice from a friend who adored the stuff. Me, I hate 'big reds'.
They'll go to auction upon my demise the proceeds going to charity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penfolds_Grange
If I bought what I like then it'd have been Perrier Jou

Buddha
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Penfolds is another top performer!

"Good as gold!"

JSBach
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Quote:
Penfolds is another top performer!

"Good as gold!"

Be careful what you recommend. It's Penfold's "GRANGE". Most of Penfold's other wines are anything but sane investments.

Buddha
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Last seen: 12 years 5 months ago
Joined: Sep 8 2005 - 10:24am


Quote:

Quote:
Penfolds is another top performer!

"Good as gold!"

Be careful what you recommend. It's Penfold's "GRANGE". Most of Penfold's other wines are anything but sane investments.

When I say, "Penfolds," it automatically means Grange, unless otherwise specified.

I do like The Grandfather, though, too.

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