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How about a little stability for an industry that's customer driven, not lawyer, profit, or ego.
Clearly, plenty of readers are still committed to CD for one reason or another. How long do you expect record labels to continue releasing CDs?
I think specialty labels will always release CDs. There is a market out there for people who want to have the physical product in their hands. The trouble in classical and jazz is that the best performers are no longer with us hence there is no great demand for new releases. I, for one, rarely buy new CDs and opt for second hand releases from the '80s and '90s from old re-issues.
At least another 20 years. There isn't another physical medium to take its place. Likely never will be. I think there will always be a demand for music on a physical medium, regardless of how popular downloading gets. You need to hear the SHM & BluSpec discs out of Japan to hear just how good CD can sound!
There are several reasons that CDs won't go away any time soon. With downloads, only one or two singles from the album can be purchased, so the music industry has a vested interest in selling the entire album. From the customers' side, the CD comes with the album artwork, lyrics, etc. No need to download and possibly print more stuff. Also, CDs can contain bonus material, and can also be auotgraphed. The day before the Green Day's 21'st Century Breakdown was released, there were already a dozen people on line at the Best Buy's Manhattan 5th Avenue store for the 500 autographed discs. And for audiophiles, it jsut takes too long to download every purchase in lossless format.
I put the 5–10 choice down, because digital media is constantly evolving, but I anticipate some form of physical digital media to be around for quite a while. I use a digital music server exclusively, but I still prefer to have my physical media around as a back-up, and also because it is somehow reassuring to have it. There is something about having the media that makes me strongly prefer it to downloading—even when some of the downloads are of much higher quality than the CDs would have been.
Anyone could be way off on this one. I thought records were going away in the '80s, yet they are still being produced today. As long as music that people want is available on CD, they will still sell. But if a new format comes along that is better, most people will jump ship.
I think they'll keep releasing CDs as long as there is not a better alternative that comes along. And I don't really see that happening anytime soon. I do believe computer-based audio will continue to grow, but there will always be enough collectors out there to sustain the market for a physical sound carrier.
Yadda, yadda, LPs are dead, CDs are dead, the future is pure data streaming into a DAC module implanted in your brain, etc. The human neurological system seeks, processes, and records a full sensory representation of each psychological experience, ie, visual, auditory, and kinesthetic (and olfactory). Physical audio playback product therefore will not become completely obsolete anytime soon.
Audiophile labels will continue to sell CDs and vinyl records. Small audiophile labels will cherry-pick the best recordings for reissues. Major labels will stop by the end of this year. That means that there will be no more funding for the garbage that has ruined the music industry. There will always be benefactors for real music.