You are here

Log in or register to post comments
gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

I post this only because Buddha asked me to. I am not an "advocate" of gold, an apocalyptic raver, a blogger, a web-analyst chumming for business, or a broker. I am a speculator. I make money trading the short-term (and cyclical) waves that map out long-term trends. I pay attention to macro-economic "fundamentals," as they are narrated by the popular press, but only for the purpose of gauging sentiment for the contrarian plays. Most of my work is technical (trending metrics). I pay attention to what the markets are REALLY doing (price) versus what media pundits say they OUGHT to be doing. Usually, at important turning points, the media are wrong (who wants to risk embarrassment making an unpopular call?). I pay particular attention to MACD and RSI indicators, looking for divergences against price. I watch pattern interpretations, but patterns morph with price, and their interpretations are too often aligned with what the crowd sees. And I want to go against the crowd.

Macro-fundamentals for the sector are bullish, long term. Markets trend in secular up AND down trends for macro-reasons. Long term, the $USD is being pimped lower, no matter WHAT the political mouthpieces spew forth. We owe too much on our trade balances, and a weaker $USD is the answer to the short-term fix. It won't work, but that is another story, and I don't have the time to tell it.

As I posted a few days ago, when the geek parade was piling into a tradable top on OBVIOUS news (i.e., the $USD is no longer a reserve currency, the Chinese and Arabs want a change, etc., etc., etc.), I thought we were approaching a short-term top.

Today, we confirmed that top. But the fundamentals are still intact, and December, EVERY year, since this secular bull market in gold began in 1999-2001, has been a climactic month in the seasonal cycles of gold.

October has been weak, after usual September rallies.

We are now on cycle. We are now entering the buy zone. My favorite 3 three mining companies are GG, AUY, and NXG. Buy low, sell high. If you don't buy low, then you have nothing to sell high. Duh. Sentiment has turned negative on gold because prices are falling. There is a gap on the COMEX December Contract chart waiting to be filled at around 1018. It may or may not fill. More importantly, my favorite miners (above) are now humping down into STRONG support. I sold GG at 43. I bought it back today at 38.18. I almost bought back the AUY I sold at 12.52 today, when it printed 11.30. Still, it has a gap down to 10.70. I will almost certainly buy tomorrow. There are no gaps on the NXG price chart. It closed today at 2.72. You might get 2.50, but if it prints ANYWHERE in the 2.60's, you should buy anyway. The upside target for NXG is 3.50-ish. AUY has been to 21. GG has been to over 50.

Repeat. You cannot play unless you are willing to buy wash-out selloffs. Wash-out selloffs are confirmed by negative press. We are now getting negative press, due to a (temporary) bounce in the $USD, AND due to recent, er, overenthusiasm concerning the gold sector. And, of course, due to cyclical pressures.

Okay. I have done my duty. Buy low, sell high. Now is low, high comes later.

Keep your positions small, and sleep well. Go large and squirm and sweat all night. This is volatile shit. ANYTHING that allows you to potentially double your money ALSO allows you to halve it. That is why you have to be a contrarian and buy when others are selling.

Happy tunes, all.

KBK
KBK's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 30 2007 - 12:30pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Sentiment has turned negative on gold because prices are falling. When those chickens come home to roost, that'll be the end of that bit of negativity.

I remember a major author of financial articles (8 years as the head of a major regional area {asia} financial news bureau) and how he related that the financial news that he spewed that people would read and thus move to change the markets...was dictated to him for the benefit of those who dictated the contents the original articles and announcements. Meaning, it was market manipulation, pure and simple. And that those who read the articles and acted on them were merely acting as the tide that carried the waves to the shores of profit - for the persons who created the dictates-in the first place. That was the game, and that was the plan, and is it still the same today.

I'm not disagreeing with you Clifford, I'm just adding to it, in my own way.

Do you bother to subscribe to places like the BullionDesk?

Edit: Sorry CLIFTON, I dunno why that name change took place.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

KBK, you obviously follow this shit. Yes, the markets are manipulated, but only within the constraints of long-term trending metrics. Gold is in an enormous, long-term bull market. There are no signs of a trend reversal. So, you wait for negative short-term moves within the larger context, and buy judiciously. As you probably well know, fear and greed will kill you in this arena, unless you simply shuck the shit and get a core position in physical gold (and silver -- but silver is not a world central bank reserve, and gold is).

Thus, we apparently agree on one thing. "Manipulation" is a fact, but a limited one. The trend will have its way. So, what you do is get on the side of the manipulators. They buy negative press, so why shouldn't you? They sell overcooked highs, in terms of the public news, so why shouldn't you? Otherwise, you are merely a victim of your television habit and your need to have group approval.

It is "Clifton," not "Clifford," but that doesn't bother me. On the golf course, I am usually referred to as, "You're away," "Shit head," or "Not so fast..." (that latter due to my habit of sweeping away 3-foot putts nonchalantly, as though they were really gimme's...).

90% of all traders lose money. 90% of all traders wouldn't know a secular trend from a secular revolt from orthodoxy. 90% of all traders buy enthusiasm and sell depression. It is true that uptrends occasionally extend, and "enthusiastiasm" buys CAN generate tremendous short-term profits (these are called "momentum" trades by the statistical geeks), but momentum-jumpers almost always stay too long at the prom. They tend to believe their own bullshit.

There are no general rules. Each tradable trend develops its own profile, its own distinctive stamp. BUT. Buying short-term dips during long-term, secular bull markets, when the media are calling the so-called "fundamentals" into doubt, is the closest thing to an ATM that the markets offer.

The trading public have short memories. Unbelievably, they forget the macro-fundamentals that lie behind this great gold bull market, each time some dickhead on CNBC comes on (usually, at or near a trading bottom) and proclaims an end to it all. So, they panic out of the positions they panicked into at or near the trading top.

That's it, puke it out... come to papa...

The need for absolute precision and the need for social approval absolutely KILL almost every trader who comes near this sector. Yet, after being flushed out at or near the lows, they always pick up the newspaper a year later, and, sure enough, gold and the good folks who mine it are up another 20%. "Why didn't I SEE that," they cry in anguish. Then they go out and do it all over again. Go figure. Insanity has been defined as repeated behavior that anticipates different results. These markets are insane. But, a trend is a trend, and this one isn't anywhere NEAR being over. Buy low, sell high, or get a 1%-2% CD at your local bank (which may well be defunct 6 months down the road...). Or, better yet, get 1/2% in your favorite money market fund.

As tough as these markets are, I could these beat supposedly "safe" returns if you locked me in a closet with nothing more than a lap-top and a brokerage account. And, you could (easily) keep me looped on bad gin during all my waking hours.

Isn't that the macro-point? Short rates are zero, and the Fed and Congress are in a giving mood. What else do you need to know? How to draw a 3-month trend-line and correlate the 14-day RSI with price? How to identify OBVIOUS seasonal trends that have prevailed for the last 30+ years?

Sheesh.

Good luck.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

KBK, I didn't answer your question. I surf around the web, looking for new perspectives into trading. I always keep an open mind, but it is my money and I have to rely, ultimately, on my own trading experience and my read on the sector leaders. Yes, I have run across "The Bullion Desk." No, there is nothing I have found there that is of practical use to my own trading strategies.

Today I bought 500 shares of GG at 38.02, and another 500 shares at 37.76. I also bought 10,000 shares of NXG at 2.655. I also bought 1,000 shares of KGC at 19.08 and another 1,000 shares at 18.88. I also bought 5,000 shares of AUY at 10.914 (an average price on a market order). I only bought 1,000 shares of MFN (at 9.37), but I bought 2,000 shares of JAG at 8.52. This puts me in 42% of my available trading cash. I will remain below 62%, no matter what happens on this swing. I don't need to go all in, so I won't. Still, this is obviously the dip I have been looking for since I started posting on this matter.

Sound money management and simply staying on the long term trend will get you MUCH further than delusions of being uniquely gifted with ESP. I have learned that, over the years. You can be right or wrong on a given market situation, but you had better manage your cash well, trash or not.

It doesn't matter how much money you are running. It is the percentages that count, and your willingness to go against the crowd at trend-defining junctures. After all, if you are going to be wrong, would you rather be wrong while forced out on a dip after buying the "momentum" highs, or would you rather be wrong after holding out for a correction and buying near trend-defining lows? The latter is preferable for me. Others prefer to buy into rising momentum. Too much risk, for me.

Nothing I bought today will go to zero. For all of you out there who hold banking stocks bought at "bargain" levels, can YOU say the same?

Gold doesn't go to zero. This makes planning a speculative/investment strategy much easier, vis-a-vis buying the government-approved vehicles.

I repeat. THIS is the buying season, for the gold mining sector, and for gold futures. Right now. I cannot profess to being able to buy the exact bottoms. But I can usually get into the broad vicinity. And that is good enough.

Expect the mass media to report incipient $USD strength, and weakness in commodities, including gold. One problem. Gold is not a commodity. Gold is the monetary basis, official or not. It always has been, and it always shall be. The quality gold miners are the best way into gold, at this point in the ongoing long-term bull market in gold. Most of them are priced, currently, for $700-$800 gold. Hello. Gold is over a thousand. Happiness is recognizing the obvious. You would be surprised at how seldom that happens...

Good luck.

Buddha
Buddha's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 1 month ago
Joined: Sep 8 2005 - 10:24am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

I bought an ounce.

Of gold, even!

Today.

Thanks Clifton, maybe we'll have some fun.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Or, as the great mad poet, William Blake, said, "... if a fool would persist in his folly, he would become wise."

No matter WHAT happens to ANY markets for the rest of your lifetime, Buddha, that ounce will maintain a basic value, against goods purchased. When times are tough, and you need an emergency cash infusion, that gold coin will see you through. It is the ultimate insurance against the dam' gummint...

Sit on it. It just might hatch.

Good luck.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Today, I added 2,000 shares of AUY at 10.48. I also added another 1,000 shares of KGC at 17.98.

We are in the "buy" zone. Buy low, sell high. The market narrative that was so bullish for gold 3 weeks ago (remember? the $USD is getting trashed, and the Chinese are buying everything that hurts when you drop it on your foot...), is now turning bearish (the $USD is due for a rally, the overall stock market has outraced fundamentals, and Bernanke is going to take back some of the liquidity flood he has been letting loose over the past year or so). This narrative, as it swings back and forth, creates fear and greed among the zoomies who dart around these markets. And it is this darting that creates opportunities for those who are patient. Right now, the zoomies are running out of gold and their broader market positions.

Buy the dips. Dips are created in negative environments. Tops are created in positive environments. All the markets are speculative, and the lemmings are running.

It never ceases to amaze me how cycles that are so obvious keep repeating, over and over. Yet, here we are. The October dip is upon us, and weak money is running for the hills. They'll be back in December, at higher prices.

Good luck, all, and happy tunes.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Good day, Buddha. Your Shekel is now worth about 50 bucks more than it was when you bought it. Another week of this shit, and you'll be able to afford a quality power cord.

Comex December gold -- up $30.90, to $1085. AUY -- $11.68. GG -- $40.12. MFN -- $10.54. NXG -- $2.81. All good, for a big money day.

KGC -- $18.05. Ugh. Still, this one will blow higher, eventually, and I was able to average down today by buying another 2,000 shares at $17.52.

'Tis the season...

JIMV
JIMV's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 months 3 weeks ago
Joined: Jan 31 2008 - 1:46pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

India bought 200 tons at around $26 million a ton today for their central banking system...If India or China begin doing this routinely, the price will skyrocket!

JIMV
JIMV's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 months 3 weeks ago
Joined: Jan 31 2008 - 1:46pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Gold extends record high on India purchase

By Javier Blas in London and James Lamont in New Delhi

Published: November 3 2009 09:08 | Last updated: November 4 2009 09:51

Chart: goldGold prices continued to rise on Wednesday extending the all-time highs which followed India

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

JIMV, I think this was cooked into prices about a week ago. I heard about it 4 days ago. Still, at a time when supply is tight and demand is steady, this offtake (about half of what the IMF had to sell) does help gold's overall picture.

The new star of the mining sector may well be Goldcorp (GG, NYSE). They reported earnings today, and it was an outstanding report. I have owned this in my core position (10,000 shares at an average of about 7 bucks) since I first started accumulating it in 2001. I also normally trade 3,000 - 5,000 shares in my trading account, trying to catch the seasonal swings. My latest entry for trading was 7,500 shares at 36.22 on Friday. I will sell this down to 5,000 (perhaps as soon as tomorrow) and let the rest run through the seasonal strength.

Right now, it is probably a better bet than the bullion, between now and, say, March. GG is based in Canada, and more than 90% of their production is in politically "safe" areas, unlike many of the juniors and explorers. And, unlike many of their larger-cap peers.

GG, AUY, and NXG are the 3 you want to own during this run. All three have excellent charts (which means room to run, to the upside, before they get overbought), all 3 are solid producers at low costs, with solid management, and all 3 are undervalued versus what they mine.

Good luck.

Buddha
Buddha's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 years 1 month ago
Joined: Sep 8 2005 - 10:24am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

I'll tell ya when to jump off the train...

The next time the Fed raises rates. It will be the first of many steps up.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Buddha, the next time the Fed raises rates may just be when hell freezes over. That is the point. Gold "sees" terminal gridlock. Now, the next time the Fed says they MIGHT raise rates, you might get a 5%-10% downdraft in gold. MIGHT. The Fed is helpless. If they raise rates, their 11 trillion dollar deficits become (name the points) that much more difficult to finance. The 800-pound gorilla suddenly weighs 8,000 pounds.

The piper must be paid, no matter what the scenario. Universal health care. On the cheap. Yeah, right. Future Social Security fundings. Already borrowed to the hilt, AND demanding further funding. While PRESENTLY borrowed to the hilt.

When the Fed raises rates, the hue and cry will create riots in the streets. Because of the trickle-down. MORE jobs lost. MORE accusations against wall street and "banks."

Does anyone out there really think the Fed is in control of this mess?

Meanwhile. Is the $USD going to suddenly become worthless? No. We are now the slugs of the world, the spenders who have to, somehow, perpetuate the myth of "all poverty is preventable." We have to keep borrowing and spending. No matte how you spin it, we HAVE to keep borrowing and spending.

And the Fed is helpless. That is the point of $1,000+ gold. That is the POINT. CNBC doesn't get it. What is the point of gold, they lament, every morning?

The point of gold has to do with limitations. Gold says things have to stop somewhere. Gold says that money is NOT relative, and that there IS a basis. Gold says that you can't lie about debt and still discipline the economy. Debt is debt. Gold is the only asset class that does NOT have an offsetting liability on the other side of the column.

Gold is also a political AND speculative football. Punt. Return the punt. And on we go. So, expect volatility. Expect $100 up-days and $200 down days. And then weekly $500 up-moves. Is this the end of times"? No. Of course not. Markets adjust. There are no ultimates. There is only the basis. And the basis is gold.

Expect more tantalizing probes into hypothetical ultimates. Expect more flatulence on the part(s) of our "leaders." Expect the trillions afloat to exploit the above. Expect gut-wrenching volatility in ALL markets.

Do NOT expect logic to prevail. After all, logic leaves the wrong people exposed (Buffett's greatest quote, and it wasn't even his, and so goes the world -- "You never know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out...").

None if the above is predictive. Everything of the above is speculative, and how I have made over 2,000% by simply trading the markets as they appear, over the past 10 years.

Buddha, I love ya. You know that. But your comment is incredibly naive. The Fed is NOT in control. They haven't been since Greenspan announced his "irrational exuberance" judgment in 1996. When the Dow was around the mid-6.000's.

Trust me, Buddha. You ain't seen NUTHIN' yet. Jawboning about interest rates or not.

Things get deferred into the future. Endlessly. Gold does not understand "endlessly," and is a call to GET IT RIGHT NOW. While you can. Gold is the basis. Everything else is relative and thus postponable. That is the basis versus Keynes. Right now, the basis is winning. By an absurd margin. When will it all end??

I have no idea. Yeats wrote, in A Vision, "exhausted by the cry, 'My love will never end,' my love ended."

My trust, as a trader, lies simply in my experience and my ability to view the entire comedy with a jaundiced eye. Steady as she goes.

As I have said many times, I have seen this movie before. It ends badly. Live and love. Make love and live. But keep some cash and some gold. Just in case. No need to get all apocalyptic about things. But. A trend is a trend, and a profit is a profit.

Good luck.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Yesterday and today, I took 80% of my trading positions off the table. All of a sudden we have hit a fever pitch in gold sentiment, with the Market Vane "Bullish Consensus" poll hitting 97%. In the past, this has not been sustainable. And, I was able to book over $34,000 in profits over a two-week period. This is not the kind of money you leave on the table.

I am looking to re-buy at lower levels. You should not sell your gold coin. Getting in and out with an ounce of gold isn't worth the trouble. You might consider averaging yourself into 50 ounces of silver, over the next 2 weeks, by buying either US Silver Eagles, Canadian Silver Maple Leafs, or 1-ounce rounds with a reliable hallmark (i.e., Johnson-Matthey, Credit Suisse, Kitco, Sunshine, or some other reliable refiner).

Silver has not moved proportionally with gold, yet. History says it will. If so, today's prices are incredibly cheap.

Cyclically, mid to late November usually moves sideways to down. Then comes the run for the roses, December to February.

Bernanke has admitted he is helpless. Geithner just does that weird shit with his eyes and blathers non sequitur inanities. Still, expect the markets to trade in both directions, with the trend remaining up.

KBK
KBK's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 30 2007 - 12:30pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

yep, I'm a silver guy, iffin' I was to get into the market in a physical way, the money thing is bit big for me to bite off in the gold market.. I'm also into minor metals but you really have to know your market trends with that stuff but the payoffs can be as huge as the losses. makes gold look downright pedestrian in comparison. I don't play in that market area (minor metals and the rest of the PMG) but I pay attention to it as some of my products use them, and I have to watch my costs.

KBK
KBK's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 30 2007 - 12:30pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Just read this, and this source has been 'interestingly reliable' on some very odd and difficult topics, but it is, of course, unknown to as exactly what this means: "Both the Chinese government and MI6 now confirm reports that much of the gold sold by the Federal Reserve Board over the past decade is in fact gold plated tungsten."

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

And how much is tungsten goin' for, on the spot and OTC markets? I hear the base metals are doing fine, but that doesn't do any of us any good, without a vehicle for trading them.

Tungsten, surely, would be a better long term play than chocolate, eh?

Trade the short term swings. Buy and hold on the long-term fundamentals. Pick your cycle. Tungsten, molybdenum, or any other en or um.

Meanwhile, back at the (delusional) ranch, the zoomies are zoomin' in and out of gold, and the cycles are hummin'. Buy the dips, sell the rallies. Hummana, hummana, hummana.

Buy low, sell high. "Low" and "high" are always relative. However, you can make a LOT of money guessing at sentiment extremes. Stay with the long term trends, buy the dips within those metrics, and you will always be able to trade out at a profit.

Good luck, KBK. Tungsten. I think I'll just stick with what I know. I like chocolate better. At least we can eat our way to inter-continental doom. There are worse deaths...

Monty
Monty's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 16 2005 - 6:55pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

It appears to me that the Fed's strategery is to place all their chips on exporting our way out of this mess. A lower dollar makes our goods cheaper in foreign markets. The resulting increase in exports should also increase manufacturing and boost employment. A look back indicates that exports was the largest contributor to GDP toward the end of 2007, just prior to the rug being pulled out from under the economy. This makes some sense given the domestic weakness in consumption as a result of a consumer carrying far too much debt and the need to further deleverage. Lower domestic spending is here to stay for at least several years and can't be counted on to delever substantial GDP growth. This leaves exports to developing nations as the only option.

The futility of this strategy is in the fact that consumer spending accounts for 70% of our economy. We simply can't export our way to economic growth and that spells a jobless, very soft recovery at best. And that's the best case scenario. There's no way of getting around the time necessary to repair balance sheets. That's done by reducing spending and paying down debt.

In the mean time, we have asset inflation due to a weak currency. Those with assets will do considerably better at preserving their wealth while the average Joe will be fleeced from a devalued currency. Yes, the little guy gets screwed once again...regardless of what the politicians are saying.

This calls for a little counter-intuitive thinking. Rather than approach investing from the perspective that discretionary spending will be weak, approach it from the perspective that discretionary spending will be weak for the average consumer while the well off should ramp up on their spending having suffered far less wealth destruction. There are already anectdotal indications that this may be occuring. Several recent art auctions far exceeded expectations while low-end retailers are showing disappointing earnings.

Any way you slice it, a devalued currency hits the lower and middle class like a ton of bricks while protecting the value of assets for those who hold them. Smart people with the means to do so are converting cash into assets such as gold and other precious metals along with other asset classes to preserve their wealth. The message from the Fed is loud and clear. "Cash is trash."

KBK
KBK's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 30 2007 - 12:30pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

In October, the Hong Kong bankers discovered some gold bars shipped from the United States were actually tungsten with gold plating. This is the exact same Modus Operandi as the silver clad zinc dimes from 45 years ago.

........

The initial discovery was something like four gold bars, which the Hong Kong bankers drilled invasively to test the contents. Reminds me of drilling the earth and measuring how many grams of gold per tonne. The HK bankers hoped to have 99% gold yield in their drill program for the resident bars. They found something like 1% instead and 99% tungsten. By the way, tungsten sells for less than $70 per ton, which makes its swaps for gold to be 60x more profitable than silver bar swaps. Another handy usage for the Gold/Silver ratio in calculations. The hunt was on. Now not a single assayer on the planet is available, as all are tied up. They have been commissioned to test the gold bars shipped from the United States of Fraudulent Banker America in their own bullion vaults. They use basic methods of four drill holes with direct assay of shavings, but also less invasive methods like electro-magnetic waves to examine the metal lattice structure. When highest level methods are needed, they turn to mass spectrometry. NOW ALMOST NO GOLD BARS WILL LEAVE THE LONDON OR NEW YORK METALS EXCHANGES WITHOUT SOME AUTHENTICATION, AS DISTRUST IS WIDESPREAD.

(Their emphasis)

This portion of an article came from a very well known mining and gold supply company that sells PMG bars and coins, etc.

That means that this shit is serious. Very very serious.

On an interesting side note, the story goes that afore the towers went down, the sub-basement area had, over time, inadvertently become a storage area for vast amounts of gold bullion. Slowly, over time, it had been turned into a giant deep vault for gold bullion.

Well, the story goes (one that was pretty darned hushed) that there was a series of tunnels that connected the complex together. And in one of the tunnels (at these extreme sub-basement levels, a truck was found a large heavy truck. In that truck was a few gold bars. And that all of the gold that was in the vaults was removed the night before.

All 60, 120., 160 billion worth of it...apparently. (The $ number in the story varies)

Oddly enough, the story of tungsten salted bullion from the Fed being suspect states a '10 year' period, going back, of the FED being untrustworthy in that regard. The time point, (the approximate 10 years back to the current day) is interesting, isn't it?

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

This is a terrific story, Ken. Over the past 25 years or so, monetary and political authorities have refused to audit US gold holdings. The latest flimsy excuse, during the latter part of Bush's tenure, was that it would be too expensive -- I forget the exact amount quoted, for parts and labor, but $3 million sticks in my mind. Ironically, this has to be less than what it costs to keep sending Timmie and Barack to China to apologize to the Chinese for printing too much paper, and then to whine that the Chinese are keeping the Yuan too weak.

This would be funny if it weren't so sad.

KBK
KBK's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 30 2007 - 12:30pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Even More 'space oddities' are cluing us in as to what might be the real things that are going on. Note the specific bank in question. HSBC bank it is. Is this becoming more clear? (HSBC= Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation) Remember, it is the Hong Kong Gold Bugs that have apparently been shafted by the FED banks.

Armoured trucks leave NYC

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Ken, my basic thesis during this entire gold bull (I started buying futures contracts, coins, and mining stocks in 1999) is that humans cannot handle relativity, when it comes to money. My "news" trigger, back then, was when it was announced (few listened...) that our budget surplus had not only changed to neutral, but to a deficit. That got my attention, so I looked at my long term charts, and started accumulating.

Look. I am a PhD in Literary Theory/English at UC Irvine. And I enjoyed the hell out of it. But only academics (specifically, poets, theorists about poetry, and philosophers) can afford absolute relativity (I am sure you caught the oxymoron, but others may read this post, with gold above $1.207 in European trading, as I write this). I sat at the knees of the arch-relativist, Jacques Derrida. But that was theory. When it comes to MONEY, people need a basis. A point below which things cannot go. Relativity will not allow you to sleep nights.

If monetary authorities won't adopt and enforce a gold (and, perhaps silver) basis, then the smart money will adopt such bases on their own. THAT is why gold is over $1,200 during a point in the cycle when there is no "official" nominal inflation (everything I buy keeps going up, but why should I believe my own checkbook, when I have BLS to guide me to the truth?...).

If anyone out there thinks that "inflation" is a fearsome beast, to your typical Keynesian/Monetarist, try the word, DEFLATION. Deflation is the banker's worst nightmare. Bernanke and his fellow relativists are trying desperately to pry $$$ out from under the mattress. They fear that raising rates will simply put MORE $$$ into the mattress. They need the macro-numbers to support their ongoing grand experiment. And they'll do anything to get them.

Now is NOT a good time to buy gold. There will be crashes, as the world careens down this suicidal monetary "experiment." Still, crashes will be bought, and gold will eventually re-assert itself as a basis. Cash spins around gold. Gold spins around cash. Like Yeats's gyre. There is never a final answer. There are always the cycles of trust and distrust. Right now? The latter.

Lamont Sanford
Lamont Sanford's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 weeks 4 days ago
Joined: Mar 31 2006 - 8:32pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Clifton, if the majority us had money to invest in gold to make a difference we would be spending it on music instead. No offense, but I prefer silver.

JIMV
JIMV's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 months 3 weeks ago
Joined: Jan 31 2008 - 1:46pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

I prefer gold but at $1200 an ounce, I buy silver.

tomjtx
tomjtx's picture
Offline
Last seen: 9 months 3 weeks ago
Joined: Nov 12 2006 - 2:53pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle


Quote:
Clifton, if the majority us had money to invest in gold to make a difference we would be spending it on music instead. No offense, but I prefer silver.

LOL, or gear, I just bought some tubes for my phono preamp.

BTW, for Clifton, since you are not buying gold are you selling?

tomjtx
tomjtx's picture
Offline
Last seen: 9 months 3 weeks ago
Joined: Nov 12 2006 - 2:53pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Clifton,

reading one of your posts may have answered my question.

If you bought gold futures, mining stock and actual gold then you must have made a LOT of cash on the futures trading.
Does that mean you feel can afford to hold onto the gold since you have already made a lot of cash profit with the futures and can weather what you think are temporary gold turndowns ?

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Tomtrix, I am a long-term holder of a core position in mining stocks, gold and silver futures, and gold and silver bullion coins (within easy reach of my hands). I laid 90% of this position in between 1999 and 2002. It is inviolable. I do not trade it. I will NOT sell it at the top. I will sell it when the top is in my rear view mirror. My (macro-economic) reason for beginning to accumulate this position was the announcement (heard by all and heeded by few... but that is the way markets work) that the (mythical, but believed) budget surplus had gone to neutral and deficit. I am an old timer. I believe that debts have to be paid on time. Gold is the basis of all debt. Silver is close, but not a central bank reserve currency.

I am also a trader and a speculator. Which means I trade "on top of" my core. My best trade, over the past 11 years, was short gold (via options, futures, and a few select miners that I felt were over-valued) was from October, 2008, until November the same year. No, I did not catch the exact tops and bottoms. But I did catch the big middle of the move, and I did back up the truck the day before the bottom, for a trading buy. Right now, I am up over $400,000 on the year, trading. As a trader, now, I am long only 20% of my self-allocated trading account.

So, in answer to your question, yes, I can take a big hit down. I have already taken money off the table to the extent that I can actually HOPE that gold goes down and fills some gaps. My MMO (measured move objective) for the current move under way, is $1.324. We may not hit it. Or we may. As a trader, I will adjust, as the daily circus proceeds.

All I can do, here, is tell you when and where I am buying, and why. And I already did that.

Long term (my core), I have to see a change in macro-fundamentals before I can trust the government with my cash. There is no change in sight, right now. But I am a market student, and I monitor things day to day. Right now, I wouldn't trust the current political and monetary authorities with my measly retirement check, much less with over 3 million dollars. So I trade my trades, and hold my holds. I am schizophrenic, and I understand that. Part of me wants to MAKE money, and part of me doesn't trust the "full faith and authority of the US government" that supposedly backs it. I am use to this. I have been following this charade for 30 years.

Good luck.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Then buy silver. Silver will do okay, as this cycle plays out, but it will underperform gold because gold is a central bank reserve (internationally), and silver isn't.

If I had some eggs, I'd have some ham and eggs, if I had some ham.

You have managed your financial life badly, if all you can afford is cheap stereo equipment at this stage of your life. I am sorry. But you have to be able to save cash, stay patient, and study the markets for once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to take the plunges when they are in front of your screen.

Stereo equipment costs money. The best costs more than the mediocre, EVEN THOUGH GOOD BUDGET EQUIPMENT IS OUT THERE.

I have taken much shit from you and your cash-short friends, but reality is reality. You don't always get what you pay for, but you CAN if you pay attention to the live event and shop accordingly. And have the money to pay for what you deem "valuable" in terms of the home listening experience.

You have no options because you didn't plan well. I have options because I did. Period. End of the discussion.

Good luck. Happy tunes.

Lamont Sanford
Lamont Sanford's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 weeks 4 days ago
Joined: Mar 31 2006 - 8:32pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

We paid our house off in 16 years. I don't think I manage my money badly. I think you're a pompous ass that sucks dick in public parks at night. Probably make your john's pay with their gold teeth.

KBK
KBK's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 30 2007 - 12:30pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

How can you say that, Lamont? I've never met you and I've never met Clifton. Both of you might be great guys. And that sort of analysis may only pan out - in person. who knows?

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

If I "sucked dick" in public, it would surely be on Youtube. Right? It is not on Youtube. Right? Ergo, I have not sucked dick in public. Right?

I am "a pompous ass" who forces you to see yourself for what you really are.

A loser who can't afford to buy what he covets from others who can.

You paid off your mortgage in 16 years?

Why did it take you so long? Loser.

Of COURSE you don't think you "manage" your "money" badly. You are trapped inside your own illusions. You have no idea what "money" is, aside from what you surf and read from the common matrix.

All you do is surf, pretend, and troll.

Come on, Plastic Face, tell us all who you really are. We will understand you for the pathetic loser you really are, and we will sympathize.

16 years. Pathetic. I paid cash for mine, and I bought a nice second property for less than what my LA apartment charges me for rent.

Hello, loser!

A gold tooth is worth less than you would pay for a Sansui integrated. But a golden foundation for your future is beyond your comprehension.

Your metaphor of choice is dick-sucking. Please enlighten us all about what that has to do with gold and fake money. We await your response eagerly.

Watch your paper AND your dick. Both may be subject to sudden withdrawals.

Happy tunes, moron.

Lamont Sanford
Lamont Sanford's picture
Offline
Last seen: 3 weeks 4 days ago
Joined: Mar 31 2006 - 8:32pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

I can smell your diaper is wet again.

Jabberwock
Jabberwock's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 10 months ago
Joined: Jan 24 2008 - 3:22pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Okay might not be the right time to post this, and I am not getting in the middle of what ever is happening here. But I would like to mention I have taken the advice of people here and it has proven to be correct. A while back, someone posted an investment strategy for long term benefits. I am not sure of the author of this post but it may have been Clifton, I have not been able to find this post through the search function.

Basically the OP said, you should take 5% of your disposable income at the end of the month and put it in gold (I stuck with bullion, but futures and Mining stocks were discussed). Following this strategy has been beneficial to me so far and I expect it to be so in the future as well.

I have a question. Should I continue with the 5% strategy even when the gold price is soaring as it has been in the past month, or hold on my purchase for a time when it isn't so high.

Jabberwock
Jabberwock's picture
Offline
Last seen: 2 years 10 months ago
Joined: Jan 24 2008 - 3:22pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

On a completely unrelated note, if someone is interested in learning about the stock market and seeing how they do, I would recommend signing up for a virtual stock market website. Its just like the real stock market, but with fake money. One popular service which I use is iTrade for the iPhone. Not the most advanced and only carries the Russel 3000, so a lot of the stocks discussed here will not be listed. None the less, a fun and safe way to learn.

Monty
Monty's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Sep 16 2005 - 6:55pm
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

It was probably Clifton. He's been recommending gold for several years now. I don't think gold is so much a play on future inflation as it is a play on currency debasing. In fact, the short to medium outlook is for deflation rather than inflation and gold has continued to soar.

Systematic investing is a good way of accumulating most asset classes. However, if you are a technician who follows the technicals on a day to day basis then buying the dips and selling the rips is attractive. I think that's what Clifton does, while still holding a core position in precious metals at all times.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Jabberwock, I apologize for having been so long in replying to your post. For long-term accumulation, your instincts are right, simply as evidenced by your question.

I like to watch the 14-day RSI (relative strength indicator). When it gets above 60, during a strong run-up in price, I stop buying. When it gets back down into the 40-50 range, I resume buying. You can get a rough idea of this by going to Stockcharts.com and punching up $GOLD (an index that summarizes all the futures contracts activities on a daily basis -- it is not as good as charting the nearest-liquid-futures contract on the Comex, mostly because it doesn't show the gaps, being an index, but it is free, and it is good enough for averaging in over time). Good luck. You are on the right track. The "government" is hell-bent on bankrupting us all. The only defense you have is to 1) buy gold over time, 2) keep cash for the expenses of life, and the pleasures of living, and 3) stay out of debt as much as possible. There is a #4. Love life, love back those who love you, and love music, poetry, and good spirits.

Good luck.

gkc
gkc's picture
Offline
Last seen: Never ago
Joined: Feb 24 2006 - 11:51am
Re: Gold -- Entering a "Buy" Zone, and On Cycle

Yes, Monty, it was I. And you got it right. You couldn't have summarized my approach to these markets more accurately if you had been inside my head. Good luck. These are treacherous times. One has to separate trading (risking money to make more money) from surviving (being diversified among cash, stocks, bonds, and gold), from living and loving as though nothing were really going on. One has to be a juggler and, paradoxically, a stationary polestar, both at the same time. Life is a bitch, eh? But, it beats the alternative...

And then, there is the music. Which makes life worth living.

Good luck.

  • X
    Enter your Stereophile.com username.
    Enter the password that accompanies your username.
    Loading